Jan 16 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley cut its 2023 year-end forecast for the dollar index
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally, the "Dixie") is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.
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The US dollar has eased from its peak level, but exchange rate volatility will remain elevated in 2023 on the back of global macroeconomic uncertainty. However, although the dollar is likely to decline further in 2023, it is expected that exchange rate volatility will remain elevated.
In an effort to control inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been increasing interest rates, but the inflation curve has not been significantly affected. In 2023, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates, which will affect the yield on US Treasury securities and, consequently, the value of the US dollar.
Algorithm-based prediction website WalletInvestor suggested the US dollar index could rise to 107.598 by the end of the year in its USD forecast for 2023. The USD forecast also saw the index closing out 2024 at an average of 113.403, and 119.193 in 2025.
The United States Dollar is expected to trade at 105.16 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 109.90 in 12 months time.
GBP/USD is forecast to reach 1.20 in March 2023, before falling to 1.18 in June 2023, to 1.16 in September 2023 and to 1.15 in December 2023. EUR/USD is predicted to reach 1.10 in March 2023, before declining to 1.08 September 2023 and holding at 1.08 in December 2023.
The U.S. dollar tends to strengthen when the global economy is weak, the U.S. outperforms the rest of the world and the Fed goes on the offensive with rate hikes. On the other hand, the dollar tends to weaken once the Fed pivots back toward more accommodative policy, and the rest of the world grows in tandem.
The dollar has been gaining strength against the currencies of other major economies. The dollar is strong because the US economy is healthier than those of many other countries and because the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates.
We forecast that real GDP growth will slow to 0.3 percent in 2023, and then rebound to 1.6 percent in 2024. US GDP growth defied expectations in late 2022, but we expect persistently high inflation and rising interest rates to tip the economy into a brief and mild recession starting in Q1 2023.
The labor market is cooling down, putting less pressure on wages, while housing prices and new construction have both declined. Unfortunately, this slowdown in economic activity will likely come with a cost: According to Bloomberg's December 2022 survey of economists, there is a 70% chance of a recession in 2023.
Global GDP growth in 2023 is forecast to climb 1.6%. Developed Market growth is forecast at 0.8%, U.S. growth is forecast at 1%, Euro Area growth is projected to come in at 0.2%, China's economy is forecast to grow 4.0% and Emerging Market growth is forecast at 2.9% in 2023.
SGD to strengthen, USD expected to peak against most currencies in 2023. From a top-down perspective, analysts say things are generally seen as changing for the better in 2023 for most EM currencies after a difficult year in 2022.
After rallying for most of 2022, the dollar's value relative to other currencies has dipped over the past few months. That's probably due to the prospect of the U.S. economy weakening, said Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University.
In our view, the dollar's surge in 2022 is largely due to the rapid pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes. With the pace of Fed tightening likely to slow, the dollar has room to retreat further in early 2023 should central bank policies become more aligned.
A weaker dollar, however, can be good for exporters, making their products relatively less expensive for buyers abroad. Investors can also try to profit from a falling dollar by owning foreign-currency ETFs or investing in U.S. exporting companies.
Dollar devaluation may cause more of your money to go toward your ARM as its interest rates outpace any pay raises you see. Dollar devaluation would also make it more expensive to obtain any new credit if interest rates continually rise.
We expect the U.S. economy to expand at a muted 0.5-1% pace in 2023, as measured by real GDP, which incorporates our prediction for a mild recession beginning in late 2023. This would be a further deceleration in growth from 1.5-2% in 2022, 6% in 2021, and the longer-term average annual growth rate of 1.8%.
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.
Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above historical average rates. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 7.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 4.2 to 10.1 percent.